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25Days closed
9Critical
9Severe
5High
20Mbbl/day disrupted
Severity
Critical
Severe
High
Elevated
▸ STRAIT OF HORMUZ ◂
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The US is insulated from the worst energy impacts thanks to domestic production, but the crisis is hitting through fertilizer costs, gas prices, and supply chain disruption. The timing — mid-planting season — makes the agricultural exposure uniquely dangerous.
OIL
Gas prices up ~25% and climbing
National average significantly above pre-war levels. Pain is real but manageable — the US isn't rationing. Could rise further if closure persists.
AGR
Midwest planting season at risk
Urea at NOLA hub +28%. Saudi Arabia is the #1 US phosphate supplier — blocked. The Farm Bureau warned Trump directly: "The U.S. risks a shortfall in crops." Grocery impact arrives by summer.
SEMI
Helium = semiconductor risk
1/3 of global helium transits Hormuz. Helium is critical for chip fabrication. If shortages hit, expect delays and price increases on electronics, cars, and medical devices.
MKT
Markets volatile, inflation rising
Dow dropped 400+ points on Day 3. Oil prices swing 10%+ on headlines. Inflation was cooling — this crisis reignites it. The Fed's rate-cut timeline is now uncertain.
Europe is experiencing a second energy crisis in four years. Gas storage was already low from a harsh winter. The loss of Qatari LNG through the strait, on top of reduced Russian supply, is pushing the continent toward industrial contraction and inflation.
GAS
Gas prices roughly doubled
European gas benchmarks approximately doubled from pre-war levels. Storage below 30% — the lowest since 2022. 12-14% of Europe's LNG came through Hormuz. The summer refill season is now at serious risk.
IND
Industry adding 30% surcharges
Chemical and steel manufacturers can't absorb energy costs. UK inflation expected to breach 5%. ECB postponed planned rate cuts. Energy-intensive economies face technical recession.
AIR
Jet fuel more than doubled
Airlines cutting routes and adding surcharges. Budget carriers are most exposed. Summer travel costs will be significantly higher than booked prices suggest.
FOOD
Food prices climbing again
Fertilizer disruption + energy costs = higher farm input prices across the continent. Europe imports significant ammonia — prices will flow through to bread, dairy, and meat by Q3.
Asia is ground zero. 84% of Hormuz oil goes to Asia. Countries are rationing fuel, closing schools, mandating work-from-home, and releasing strategic reserves. For hundreds of millions, this isn't an economic story — it's a daily survival question.
GOV
Schools closed, offices shut
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines, Vietnam, Sri Lanka have all imposed 4-day work weeks, WFH mandates, or school closures to conserve fuel. Thailand told workers to take the stairs.
FUEL
Rationing is real
Sri Lanka: QR-code fuel system, 15L/week per car. Bangladesh: military controls oil depots. Myanmar: alternating driving days. Vietnam has ~20 days of reserves left.
LPG
Cooking gas running out
India: LPG queues and shortages nationwide. 60% of India's LPG imports pass through Hormuz. Restaurants closing. Refineries ordered to max out domestic LPG production.
RSV
Japan/Korea burning reserves fast
Japan authorized its largest-ever reserve release (80M barrels). South Korea imposed fuel price caps for the first time in 30 years. Both have months of buffer — but the clock is running.
The Gulf states are the epicenter — both as blocked producers unable to export and as nations that import 70-90% of their food through the strait. The humanitarian situation in Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria was already dire. It's now catastrophic.
HALT
Producers can't produce
Iraq declared force majeure. Saudi cut production 20%. Kuwait shut fields. Qatar's LNG is stranded. Storage is full, wells are shutting in. Oil wealth means nothing if you can't export it.
FOOD
70% of food imports blocked
Gulf states import almost everything they eat through Hormuz. Food prices up 40-120% in the UAE. Qatar has no alternative ports. Retailers airlifting staples. This is a food emergency for 50M+ people.
H2O
Desalination plants struck
Iranian strikes hit infrastructure including desalination plants — the source of drinking water for much of the Gulf. This has shifted from economic crisis toward potential humanitarian catastrophe.
AID
Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria
17M food-insecure in Yemen. Flour +270% in Gaza. 874K in crisis-level food insecurity in Lebanon. 67K+ displaced returning to Syria with nothing. All pre-existing crises dramatically worsened.
How This Reaches YouCascading Effects
1st Order — Immediate
HAPPENING NOW
OIL
Gas prices
Gas up ~25% from pre-war
US average significantly above pre-war levels. Full tank costs $8-15 more. Could rise further if strait stays closed.
AIR
Flights
Jet fuel more than doubled
Airlines adding fuel surcharges. Vietnam grounding flights in April. Route cuts coming. Budget carriers most exposed.
NRG
Energy bills
EU gas benchmarks doubled
European gas prices roughly doubled from pre-war levels. Industrial surcharges up 30%. UK inflation expected to breach 5%.
SEA
Shipping
1,000+ ships stranded
Insurance rates 4-6× higher. Ships rerouting via Cape of Good Hope (+weeks of transit time). Container rates spiking.
2nd Order — Weeks Out
BUILDING NOW
AGR
Food supply
Fertilizer up ~30% and rising
Urea prices surging from pre-war levels. Northern Hemisphere planting season at risk. US Farm Bureau warns of crop shortfalls. Grocery price hikes by summer.
TECH
Electronics
Helium + plastics disrupted
33% of global helium (semiconductor input) transits Hormuz. Naphtha supply cut 24% — key petrochemical feedstock for plastics, packaging, synthetic fabrics.
MED
Pharma & medical
Petrochemical supply strain
Pharmaceutical manufacturing relies on petrochemical inputs shipped through the strait. Drug production costs rising. Supply chain delays for medical plastics.
MFG
Clothing & textiles
Asian garment industry at risk
Synthetic fabrics depend on petrochemicals via Hormuz. Bangladesh (world's #2 garment exporter) already rationing energy for factories.
3rd Order — Months Out
IF CLOSURE PERSISTS
GDP
Global economy
GDP −2.9% (Dallas Fed est.)
Stagflation risk worldwide. ECB already postponing rate cuts. Recession likely in energy-importing economies. Stock markets volatile — Dow fell 400+ pts on Day 3.
FOOD
Food crisis
50M+ at risk in Gulf alone
Gulf states import 70-90% of food via the strait. Flour +270% in Gaza. Yemen: 17M food-insecure. If planting fails globally, food inflation hits everyone by late 2026.
PWR
Energy transition
Forced acceleration
Sri Lanka seeing rush to solar panels and EVs. Countries fast-tracking renewables and nuclear for energy independence. Crisis may permanently reshape energy policy.
GEO
Geopolitical shift
China & Russia gain leverage
China controls fertilizer exports. Russia selling oil at premium to stranded buyers. Both positioned to gain influence over disrupted supply chains long-term.
Scenario Modeler
PROJECT ECONOMIC, ENERGY, AND FOOD SECURITY IMPACTS BASED ON CLOSURE DURATION · BASED ON DALLAS FED + IEA + FAO MODELS
30 days
Projections derived from: Dallas Federal Reserve Economic Letter (Mar 20, 2026) — quarterly oil disruption model; IEA strategic reserve depletion estimates; FAO Global Agrifood Implications Report (Mar 2026); BE Horizon geoeconomic analysis; Atlantic Council fertilizer supply chain assessment. These are modeled estimates, not predictions. Actual outcomes depend on diplomatic, military, and market variables that cannot be forecast with certainty.
HormuzTracker.org
Independent OSINT Crisis Intelligence
HormuzTracker.org is an independent, open-source crisis intelligence tool. It was built and launched during the first weeks of the 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis to fill a gap: no single resource was tracking which countries had declared energy emergencies, imposed rationing, or faced food insecurity from the closure — all in one place, with sourced data.
All data is sourced from public, verifiable records. The methodology is transparent. The tool is free to use and embed. Corrections and contributions are welcome.
For corrections or data submissions, please use the email above.
What Is This Costing You?
ESTIMATE YOUR HOUSEHOLD'S MONTHLY COST INCREASE FROM THE HORMUZ CRISIS
Estimated Additional Monthly Cost
$0
Estimates derived from live oil price data and historical energy-to-consumer price pass-through ratios. Gas price increases scale with crude oil movements. Grocery impact estimated from USDA food price elasticity models. Actual costs vary by location, consumption patterns, and crisis duration. This is an estimate, not financial advice.